SYDNEY, Australia: Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 advisers fear telling him the truth about his 鈥渇ailing鈥� Ukraine war strategy, the head of Britain鈥檚 top communications spying agency said Thursday.
Putin had 鈥渕assively misjudged鈥� the invasion, the director of Britain鈥檚 intelligence agency GCHQ Jeremy Fleming said in a prepared speech to the Australian National University in Canberra.
His remarks, released in advance, echoed US intelligence issued by the White House the previous day indicating Putin was being 鈥渕isinformed鈥� by his advisers about the progress of the Russian operation.
Western intelligence sources have been keen to play up Russia鈥檚 failures in the war and highlight divisions within Putin鈥檚 inner circle.
Fleming said Putin had underestimated the Ukraine resistance, the strength of the international coalition against him, and the impact of economic sanctions.
The Russian leader had also overestimated his own military鈥檚 ability to secure a rapid victory, he added.
鈥淲e鈥檝e seen Russian soldiers 鈥� short of weapons and morale 鈥� refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft,鈥� Fleming said.
鈥淎nd even though Putin鈥檚 advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what鈥檚 going on and the extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime.鈥�
Russia鈥檚 public statement this week that it would 鈥渞adically鈥� reduce combat operations around the capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernigiv 鈥減erhaps shows they have been forced to significantly rethink,鈥� Fleming said.
He warned that cyberattacks from Russia remain a threat.
Though some people were surprised that Moscow had not launched a catastrophic cyberattack, Fleming said it was 鈥渘ever our understanding鈥� that such an offensive was central to the Russian invasion.
Britain鈥檚 intelligence services had, however, detected a 鈥渟ustained intent from Russia to disrupt Ukrainian government and military systems,鈥� he said.
鈥淲e鈥檝e certainly seen indicators which suggests Russia鈥檚 cyber actors are looking for targets in the countries that oppose their actions.鈥�
On the battlefields in Ukraine, Moscow was using mercenaries and foreign fighters to support its own forces, Fleming said.
They included the Wagner Group, which was 鈥渢aking it up a gear鈥� after being active in the country since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
鈥淭he group works as a shadow branch of the Russian military, providing implausible deniability for riskier operations,鈥� he said.
Fleming noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping had refused to condemn the invasion, providing a level of diplomatic and economic support for Russia.
鈥淲ith an eye on re-taking Taiwan, China does not want to do anything which may constrain its ability to move in the future,鈥� he said, predicting however that the China-Russia relationship may deteriorate as China鈥檚 military and economy grow in power.